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PRESENTS
VOICE OF THE PEOPLE ©
OPINION SURVEY ON 2006
A Gallup International Voice of the People Survey
conducted in South Africa by Markinor
The Gallup International Association is registered in Zurich, Switzerland as a not-for-profit Verein (association)
George H Gallup and his European colleagues established it in 1947.
Gallup International has member agencies in more than 65 countries across the world, conducting opinion and market research in over 100 countries.
JANUARY 2006
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* Almost half (48%) of the 52,000 global citizens, representing more than 2.1 billion people, who were interviewed in a Gallup International Voice of the People Survey thinks that 2006 will be a better year than 2005. This global survey in 62 countries across the world was conducted in November and December and asked “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2006 will be better, or worse than 2005?”
* Optimism is particularly high in countries with good economic prospects and no major concerns about unemployment or industrial disputes increasing in 2006.
* In South Africa there are three times as many optimists (60%) as pessimists (20%).
* On the international front, a third (30%) felt 2006 would be a troubled year with much international discord, whilst only one in five felt it would be a peaceful year (20%). The remainder feels that internationally, things will stay much as they were in 2005.
* South Africans are split on this issue – a quarter (24%) says that 2006 will be free of dispute and an almost equal proportion (27%) argues that it will be a troubled year. Almost half (45%) mostly expects no change from 2005.
Do you think that 2006 will be BETTER than 2005?
Optimists and Pessimists
Results for individual countries show that Vietnam is the most optimistic place in the world, along with Beijing (China) despite rumours that a bird flu epidemic is imminent, especially in these parts of the world. UN-administered Kosovo emerged as the third most optimistic country.
These results are remarkably consistent – Vietnam has been at the head of the optimists’ league for the last 3 years. Similarly, UN-administered Kosovo has occupied one of the top places for the last 5 years, suggesting that the peacekeeping operation holds stability and continued optimism for the future. Beijing, with its booming economy, was also one of last year’s most optimistic locations.
The 2005 survey was also conducted in Afghanistan and - for the first time - in Iraq. In Afghanistan, two thirds of those interviewed (69%) felt 2006 would be a better year than 2005. In Iraq, half those interviewed (49%) felt 2006 would be a better year, whilst only one in ten (11%) thought the opposite.
Opinions in USA show an interesting shift – over half (51%) are optimistic about prospects for 2006, although this figure was previously considerably higher: two-thirds (65%) - which put the USA on the list as one of the 10 most optimistic countries in the world for 2004.
Looking at the other end of the optimism/pessimism scale all the most pessimistic countries in the world are to be found on the European continent, but for the Philippines. This is very similar to last year’s findings, which also found European countries mostly among the pessimists league.
Economic Prospects
South Africans largely echo the views of the continent, with 41% expecting economic prosperity in 2006; 18% thinks that things will be difficult on this terrain and almost four in every ten (38%) thinks that, as far as the economy is concerned, things will be pretty much the same as in 2005.
However, South Africa’s considerable unemployment dilemma is of concern to the majority of South Africans, as almost six in every ten (57%) expect unemployment to increase a lot or at least slightly. Fears that unemployment will increase in 2006 have a major effect on people’s optimism about economic prospects. Globally, more than half of those interviewed (54%) expect the unemployment rate in their country to increase, whilst only one in five (20%) is hopeful that unemployment will decrease.
These fears are highest in the Pacific economies, albeit not an overall sentiment – 51% of Hong Kong’s inhabitants and 40% of Singaporeans have hopes for decreases in unemployment during 2006, compared to the nations in the rest of the region who are all predicting increases in unemployment.
Unemplyment will increase in 2006
All Europeans are gloomy about the economy – in Western Europe only 14% thinks the coming year will bring economic prosperity, whilst a third (37%) feels 2006 will be a year of economic difficulty. In Eastern and Central Europe, one in five (18%) predicts prosperity and just under a third (29%) sees economic difficulty in 2006. This may be due to considerable anxiety about industrial unrest on the continent – four out of ten Western Europeans (43%) expect that strikes and industrial disputes will increase in 2006, whilst only 7% think they will decrease. Eastern and Central Europeans are not quite so negative about strikes and industrial disputes – just over a quarter (28%) thinks these will increase, whilst four out of ten (44%) feel the level of turmoil will stay the level with that of 2005.
Americans are even gloomier about employment prospects than Europeans – almost half (45%) feels unemployment will increase and only a quarter (28%) thinks unemployment will decrease in 2006. Americans are not even generally positive about economic prospects – a third (31%) thinks 2006 will be a year of economic difficulty whilst only one in five (21%) thinks 2006 will be prosperous.
Africa is the most optimistic about industrial upheaval – four out of every ten (38%) felt that strikes and industrial disputes would decrease in 2006. Despite this, the region is markedly concerned about employment prospects with half (49%) of the opinion that unemployment will increase during 2006.
In keeping with concerns about employment, South Africans specifically are also saying that strikes and industrial disputes will increase (45%); a further third (34%) thinks that it will remain the same and only 16% is of the opinion that there will be fewer strikes in the New Year.
A peaceful or troubled year internationally?
% who think 2006 will be a TROUBLED year with much international discord
The Americas (including North, Central and South America) are the most pessimistic about international prospects for the coming year. In these regions, more than four out of ten (42%) think 2006 will be a troubled year, with much international discord. USA citizens are even more pessimistic – here close to half (47%) feels that 2006 will be a troubled year, with only one in ten (11%) expressing hope that 2006 will be peaceful. These figures are much the same as those collected last year, although the percentage of USA optimists has almost doubled from 2004’s 6%.
Western Europe is the second most pessimistic region – four out of every ten (39%) think that 2006 will be a troubled year, with a counter count of only one in ten (10%) thinking the opposite. It is interesting to note that UK citizens are amongst the most pessimistic on this issue – just under half (46%) thinks the coming year will be a troubled one, as do the Swiss (55%), Danes (55%), and Luxembourgers (50%).
Elsewhere in the world, people are only marginally less gloomy about international prospects for the coming year. Globally, one in three (30%) thinks that2006 will be a troubled year with much international discord, 44% thinks it will be much the same as last year and only one in five (20%) thinks that 2006 will be a peaceful year, more or less free of international dispute.
Looking at world regions, Africa is the most optimistic region, whilst Europe (both Western and Central/Eastern) is the least optimistic about prospects for the coming year.
Looking in more detail at views of economic prospects, more than a third of those questioned globally (35%) thinks that 2006 will be a year of economic prosperity, whilst a quarter (24%) feels it will be a year of economic difficulty. Again, Africa is the most upbeat about economic prospects – over half (52%) of Africans sees the coming year as one of economic prosperity.
Finally, respondents were asked about prospects for international peace – whether they thought 2006 would be a peaceful year more or less free of international dispute, a troubled year with much international discord or remain the same.
Further information on Gallup International:
In South Africa interviews were conducted telephonically with 1000 randomly chosen individuals between 5 and 8 December 2005 and results are representative of those with telephone-in-home
For more information contact:
Meril JAMES,
Secretary General,
Gallup International Association,
Email: GallupInternational@BTConnect.com
Tel: +44 20 7868 6655
Gallup International Voice of the People survey was conducted in South Africa by Markinor, the only Gallup International Affiliate in this country.
Mari HARRIS
Director and Political Analyst
Email: marih@markinor.co.za
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